Question

Getting the seasonality for FORECAST_ETS function

  • 14 September 2023
  • 1 reply
  • 138 views
J
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Userlevel 2
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  • Jose Enthusiastic Pigmenteer
  • Enthusiastic Pigmenteer
  • 22 replies

Dears,

I have the historic sales per month, and we have strong seasonality, but also and upward trend. I would like to use the FORECAST_ETS function, however, I don’t understand how to get the value of seasonality. For example I know every July and August we have a drop and then it gets higher on September. In this case the seasonality would be 12?

 

If I want something more exact can I use Python and then get the equation and plug in pigment? 

 

For calculating a better seasonality number, alpha, beta and gamma, is there a way to get those numbers in Pigment, or I need to have another application, such as Python or R?

 

Thanks in advance!

 

Jose

1 reply

Nathan
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Userlevel 6
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hey Jose,

Forecast_ETS is modeled after the one of excel which is a simple exponential smoothing.

For very seasonal series, I recommend Triple Exponential Smoothing or Holt-Winters.
We don’t have functions for these but both are doable with Pigment metrics and math operators.

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